2006-02-16-US_aid-Iran

By Ira Sharkansky

JERUSALEM —The news includes an item that Secretary of State Condolezza Rice wants to spend $85 million on dissident groups, unions, students, and media within Iran to promote reform and human rights activity.

Wonderful. The people who have sought to bring democracy to Afghanistan, Iraq, and Palestine are now focusing on Iran. Soon the Middle East will belie what Moshe Arens said years ago, i.e., that it is not the Middle West.

Haiti does not seem to be in better shape, and neither Venezuela nor Nigeria are performing like good citizens in the democratic assembly, but my primary concern is this neighborhood.

I do not doubt that the convinced can point to indicators of success wherever the Bushies have sought to enlighten the political heathen. How many Americans, Iraqis, and Afghans will be buried before the process is abandoned and success declared from whatever happens? I would not count on $85 million solving the problem of an Iranian government that denies the Holocaust or wants to produce another one with its own nuclear weapons.

Reliable reports are that both Palestinian and Israeli officials wanted to postpone the Palestinian election out of fear that Hamas would do well. The United States administration stood four square for ongoing democracy. Let the people decide. Now we are all dealing with a Hamas majority in the parliament, and experimenting with convoluted new institutions and formulations to deal with the consequences. Among the current dreams is that financial aid to nongovernmental organizations will help the Palestinian people without helping Hamas. Nonsense. The first thing Hamas will do is take control of the nongovernmental organizations, just like Fatah did when it was in power. Either do what we want, or else!

Maybe democracy is not suitable for populations that are not likely to vote the way we want. Or maybe the process of politics requires more subtlety than the White House can produce. Parliamentary regimes, like Great Britain, learned long ago to time elections to public moods, in order to get the most desirable results.

My own gut tells me that democracy is not an answer when an inward looking Islam is on the ascendance, and promoting its certainty of truth and the evil of Jews, Americans, and other unbelievers. Majorities in the Middle East and a few other places do not seem to be our friends. It is not nice to contemplate, but it is wise to accept reality when doing political calculations.

Sharkansky is an emeritus member of the political science department at Hebrew University in Jerusalem