2006-01-05 sharon-stroke

By Ira Sharkansky

Ariel Sharon suffered a serious stroke last night. Physicians speaking for the hospital report that his condition is critical and life threatening. Other medical personnel say there is virtually no chance that he can get out of this without significant damage. The alternative prognoses of one brain surgeon are early death or living as a vegetable. Another says that patients have emerged from similar episodes with the ability to communicate.

The early morning news reported that heads of all parties were either praying or hoping for Sharon's health. By the 9 AM news, with him still in the operating room after more than eight hours, attention had turned to the national election scheduled for March 28.

Yesterday, Sharon's new party, Kadima (Forward), was polling at the level of 42 Knesset seats, while the closest running Labor and Likud were each below 20. Sharon had announced the top lineup of his party candidates: Ehud Olmert was in second place after Sharon himself, and the group included former members of Labor, Likud, and the retired head of the Shin Bet security service.

Now one question is, Will the impressive group of politicians who affiliated with Kadima stay together without the cement of Sharon's popularity? Another question concerns Labor and Likud. Their leaders had all but conceded the election to Sharon. Now they are saying "no politics on this sad day," but they are being advised to reposition themselves to attract back some of those who drifted to Kadima, to bolster their lists of candidates, and embark on serious campaigning.

Olmert has not been an outstanding performer in the polls, but he has never been presented as heading the Kadima party.

Olmert's background as a crafty politician suggests he can keep the list together. He lacks strong signs of the traditional ideology of his former Likud affiliation. He was outspoken in supporting the withdrawal from Gaza, and ahead of Sharon in speaking about the need to withdraw from additional areas of the West Bank. This will aid him with Labor politicians and voters who had moved to Kadima. Currently he is serving as Minister of Finance, having replaced Benyamin Netanyahu when Bibi resigned on the eve of the disengagement. Olmert has softened the harshness of Netanyahu's policy of cutting welfare expenditures in the name of free-enterprise economic reform. This also marks Olmert as non-ideological, open to pragmatic adjustments, and attractive to voters who see themselves center-left on economic issues. When Olmert was mayor of Jerusalem, Arab residents credited him with being more forthcoming with resources for their neighborhoods than his predecessor Teddy Kollek. According to an Arab holding a senior position in the municipality, "Kollek was great at receptions honoring the holidays, and a master of public relations, but did not deliver to the Arab community."

Olmert is not above criticism. Some time ago he was singled out in a report of the State Auditor when, as Health Minister, he arranged the purchase of hospital equipment from a supplier affiliated with his Likud Party, without going through the required process of competitive bids. And just yesterday he was pictured in the business supplement of Ha'aretz alongside Arkady Gaidamak. Gaidamak is one of

Israel

’s new Russian billionaires with less than a pristine background. Much of his money was made selling arms to

Angola. He

is living in

Israel

under the shadow of a tax evasion charge in France, which was his earlier base. Gaidamak has purchased Israeli sports teams, invested in a variety of other ventures, and contributed to worthy causes. Yesterday he was grilled for the second time by the police, under a warning of being suspected of a criminal violation. He is said to be involved in laundering something like $50 million. He is free to travel within Israel, but forbidden to leave the country without notifying the police. The newspaper reported Olmert’s service in mediating some of Gaidamak’s acquisitions. One of the headlines was, “Olmert does not violate the law when he socializes proudly with Gaidamak, but a senior minister is not judged only according to strict compliance with the law. He must perform according to appropriate standards of behavior."

Olmert's reputation does not distinguish him from major competitors. The head of the Labor Party, Amir Peretz, is said to have misused Labor Federation money, when he headed that organization, to pay party dues for individuals who provided a significant element of his primary victory. Netanyahu, currently head of Likud, was investigated intensively by the police, along with his wife, for the misuse of public resources while serving as prime minister. He is widely known as a fluent speaker in English and Hebrew, but especially in hyperbole, where truth is on another planet altogether.

Sharkansky is an emeritus member of the political science department at Hebrew University in Jerusalem