2005-12-20—Moshe Feiglin |
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jewishsightseeing.com, December 20, 2005 |
By Ira Sharkansky
A friendly correspondent from Al-Jezeera called this morning,
concerned about the vote received by Moshe Feiglin in yesterday's Likud
primary to select a party leader. Feiglin received 12 percent of the vote in
a primary marked by a low turnout of 45 percent of those eligible to
participate. And insofar as his supporters are likely to have been more
enthusiastic than others, his turnout was probably closer to its maximum
than those of other candidates. As expected, Benyamin Netanyahu won the
primary with 44 percent of the vote.
Feiglin is somewhere to the right of almost every other
politician, selling Jewish nationalism and territorial ownership, spiced
with religious symbols.
The correspondent from Al-Jazeera is a decent reporter who
calls me occasionally from Hebron, and quotes me accurately in what he
writes on the organization's web site. Not surprisingly, he is concerned
with the specter of right-wing, territory obsessed Jews taking over Israel
and making life even more hopeless for the Palestinians. He asked about
the prospect of an alliance between a Netanyahu-led Likud with a heavy dose
of Feiglinism, plus other right wing and religious parties.
I think he can relax.
The collection of parties that now can be termed
religious and nationalist, from Likud rightward, include enough sizable egos
among their political and religious leaders, as well as doctrinal nuances, to
get in the way of anything more than occasional cooperation. The
ultra-Orthodox leadership is far less interested in issues of territory than
the non-ultra-Orthodox. The Sephardi ultra-Orthodox SHAS has signed on to a
posture of generous welfare programs, while Netanyahu himself is the leader
of the anti-welfare libertarian sect of Israel.
This is not to say that our political future is clear. The
uncertainty is not as unsettling as in the chaotic flirting with civil war
of our Palestinian neighbors. However, all Israel's major parties and most
of the not-so major ones are in deep crisis. Labor has moved to the left
with the selection of Amir Peretz as its leader. Along with
Meretz-Yahad or whatever it is calling itself these days (names are also in
flux), the largely Jewish left cluster cannot decide about which of the
darling causes is most important: social welfare, environment, peace with
the Palestinians, the rights of gays and lesbians, other women's issues, or
whatever. Meanwhile, it has forgotten that most of the votes are in the
center. If some of you out there think this syndrome looks like that
affecting the Democratic Party in the United States, you understand the
issue.
Salvation for the left is not likely to come from the Arab
parties. Some are looking toward the Ariel Sharon-Shimon Peres partnership,
while others remain mired in extreme nationalism, their own religiosity, and
electoral bases more concerned with localities and extended families that
with any more general issues.
Until the day before yesterday, Ariel Sharon's new party,
Kadima, (progress) owned the center. Then he had what his physicians are
calling a mild stroke, which occurred at the start of television news' prime
time. In the saturation of coverage which put everything else aside, we have
heard that he lost consciousness and was confused, and that he did not lose
consciousness and suffered only a temporary blurring of his speech. The
party line is a very mild stroke, which will enable him to leave the
hospital today (after a very restful night). Handlers say that he will
return to full service after a few days rest, and will open the weekly
government meeting on Sunday. Everyone admits that he should lose weight.
We can only hope that the publicly-available news is--and
will be--more accurate than in the cases of Woodrow Wilson, Franklin
Roosevelt, and Menachem Begin. All of them ended their tenures pretty much
out of it, along with bland announcements about minor ailments.
The not-so-friendly Ha'aretz put a headline on page 2
yesterday morning that a quarter of stroke victims die within a year after
an episode.
Initial polls show Sharon's party increasing its proportion
of the votes, but that may be sympathy. We will have to wait and see what
happens over the next three months until the actual voting. Other polls show
that Sharon's party without Sharon is not worth much. We may see an effort
of ranking colleagues to put in place some institutions for selecting
Knesset candidates and other functionaries, that do not rely so much on the
great leader's personal involvement.
Assuming we get through the election and the assembling of a
coalition government, what happens next? Both Labor and Likud have a great
deal of shuffling to get to where they used to be: competing for the broad
center of the electorate. So far no one expects Sharon's Kadima to become a
new dominant party. It is held together by Sharon's personal appeal among
the electorate, and an attachment to pragmatism or opportunism that has
marked his style in dealing with the Palestinians and the Jewish settlers.
"We can do it better" is the unspoken slogan. Who knows how that
will sell when reality changes and the "it" differs from the
relatively simple issue of the last five years?
Sharkansky is an emeritus member of the political science department at Hebrew University in Jerusalem |