2005-10-08-after retaliation_what

By Ira Sharkansky

A few days ago the news featured Israel's targeted killings of prominent Hamas and Jihad personnel, the arrests of numerous lesser figures in the West Bank, and the array of artillery pointed at Gaza. Now the news is about meetings between ranking Palestinians and Israeli, the concessions one is likely to request and the other is likely to grant.

The carrot after the stick? The influence of Ramadan? This month-long Muslim holiday features daily fasts from sunrise to sunset. Early enough before sunrise to allow a substantial meal before the fast begins, drummers march through Arab communities to wake the faithful. Those in the nearby neighborhood are also liable to wake us, sometime around 4 AM. It is not a lively rhythm that they play, but a simple dum, dum, de dum, over and over. Work can occur during the day, and each evening is a time for family feasting. We wish them well, and pleasant festivities that do not allow much time or energy for war.

Insofar as the Muslim calendar is lunar, with no leap years, Ramadan moves from one season to another. This year it will overlap with Succoth, which in the past has been a time for Jewish crowds in Jerusalem and Palestinian responses. There are no guarantees, but we may have a peaceful holiday season.

What happens next?

If there are any optimists left, they may be expecting the onset of a peace process. Abu Mazan (Mahmoud Abbas) often speaks positively. But sometimes he does not, and the Palestinian street is a tough place. It includes those who truly hate Jews (and Christians) and aspire to slaughter, as well as those who just want to live and are willing to do that alongside of us. There are also those who see benefits in their association with Israelis, and those who make interesting and attractive neighbors, colleagues, students, and friends. Palestinian public opinion polls take note of many we can live with, as well as many others.

In other words, good times and bad times are likely to be in our future. I would be more optimistic if Palestinian leaders spoke more clearly of what they will do, rather than focusing on their demands. I tell myself that that is the style of bargaining, and hope for long vacations between the violence.

Even the Labor Party seems to have learned from the Oslo process. We are less likely now to dismantle our intelligence apparatus (spies or "stinkers") among the Palestinians; unmanned aircraft are relatively cheap and effective; and the fence keeps creeping along the landscape.

May both the Muslims and the Jews have an easy fast, and a good holiday.

Sharkansky is a member of the political science department at Hebrew University in Jerusalem