2005-06-24—Sharon election chances |
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jewishsightseeing.com, June 24, 2005 |
By Ira Sharkansky
Ariel Sharon is on top of all the polls. If he runs in Israel's
next election, which will occur sometime before the Fall of 2006, current
projections are that he would beat all comers. His calmness in the face of
domestic and international pressure is impressive. He is willing to absorb
some losses to Palestinian violence rather than upset the period of
relative calm by a thoroughgoing onslaught. Yet he has warned the
Palestinians that violence against the removal of settlers from Gaza would
bring a severe reaction, even one that would overlook the likelihood of
significant civilian casualties. In other words, do not bring a blood bath
upon yourselves.
Yet all is not well for the prime minister. The attached
photo of a poster is a charm of political propaganda. It portrays the
portly son, Omri Sharon, whispering (obviously something sinister) to the
even more portly father, Ariel. Omri is himself a member of Knesset
and--together with his younger brother Gilad--a prominent operative
in his father's most inner circle. The poster cites four separate
allegation against the Sharons: one dealing with influence peddling
concerning a development by a Likud Party contributor on a small Greek
Island; illegal political contributions by South African Cyril Kern;
fictitious organizations meant to channel illegal campaign funds; and the
refusal to dismantle illegal settlements in the West Bank. The header and
footer of the poster express the theme of Sharon's personal defense
against these allegations: I didn't hear anything and I don't know
anything. It sounds a bit like some of Richard Nixon's defenses while
Watergate was unraveling.
So far, none of this has kept Sharon from leading in the
polls.
Partly this is due to the lack of enthusiasm for any of the
likely contenders. Within his own party, the most likely replacements (Bibi
Netanyahu and Ehud Olmert) have themselves been tarnished by charges no
less juicy than those leveled against Sharon, and they are not as
magisterial as Sharon in dealing with the Palestinians. Things are
arguably even worse in the major opposition party: Labor. Just yesterday
an internal party inquiry revealed that as many as one-third of the
enrollment forms submitted for new members are forgeries; they had been
presented by "vote contractors" seeking to improve the chances
of one or another candidate in a party primary. Due to the revelations,
the party manager has cancelled the primary scheduled for next week, and
has declined to name a new date. One of the candidates for leadership,
Shimon Peres, said that postponement of the primary (which he might have
won) represents the bankruptcy of the party.
Israel's politics may not be the cleanest in the world, but
they do not depart significantly from the norm. Most of the funny business
involves illegal campaigning, including campaign finance. I recall a New
York Times editorial saying that the cat and mouse game of fixing campaign
financing legislation and exploiting the numerous loopholes intentionally
left in the repair of the legislation was the most polished indoor sport
of Washington's elite. For those interested in the comic opera
surrounding a recent American state election, check out www.soundpolitics.com.
I admit to being the father of one of the site's most diligent and
outspoken contributors. Details differ from place to place, but the
actions of prominent British, German, and French politicians do not differ
significantly from those of Americans or Israelis. The Russians are in
another league altogether, while the Egyptians and Syrians do not even
aspire to rules.
Sharkansky is a member of the political science department at Hebrew University in Jerusalem |