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THE VIEW FROM JINSA
Questions abound about NIE assessment
By Shoshana Bryen
 WASHINGTON D.C.—We're trying to follow the thought process of the intelligence and former State Department personnel who determined with "high confidence" that Tehran "halted" its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and is "less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging." We have questions, starting with a footnote to the NIE (actually the only footnote and an extraordinary admission of the limitation of the process): "By 'nuclear weapons program' we mean Iran's nuclear weapon design and weaponization work and covert uranium conversion-related and enrichment-related work; we do not mean Iran's declared civil work related to uranium conversion and enrichment."
"Declared civil work" is exempted. How much overlap is there between
Shoshana Bryen
"civil" work and weapons-related work? Saddam kept thousands of weapons engineers segregated and on his payroll right up to the invasion of 2003 despite UN sanctions and inspections. If Iran has a cadre of "civil" nuclear engineers, how many of them could, and how many of them do moonlight in covert programs unaccounted for by the NIE? With what degree of certitude would our intelligence establishment and its State Department friends answer?
The NIE uses the word "covert" only to modify "uranium enrichment" in the footnote but in fact, the nuclear weapon design and weaponization programs were also covert until they were discovered. What other covert programs does Iran maintain? How would we know? And with what degree of certitude?
The NIE trumpets that the program was "halted." But nowhere does it say it was "rendered inoperable." The Libyan nuclear program was rendered inoperable; Iran's only stopped. Why and what are the implications? The NIE assesses that weaponization and weapons design stopped "primarily in response to international pressure," i.e., the Iraq War, but could it have been because a) the weapon designs were mature and b) there was no enriched uranium ready for weaponization? If the latter, what does it mean not to have accounted for the "civilian work" in enriching uranium and not to have accounted for possible covert programs? And how does this relate to the dual-use R&D programs the NIE acknowledges Iran maintains?
The NIE also acknowledges the Iranian centrifuge program, which it assesses "with moderate confidence" faces technological problems. The fact is that if the technological problems that may or may not exist are overcome, Iran could have enough uranium for a weapon in 2009, but the NIE calls that "very unlikely." Why? Because the Iranians can't solve the problems? Because they don't want to enrich enough uranium for a bomb? Because then the NIE would have to account for the fact that if enough highly enriched uranium existed, the weaponization programs could be revived?
On the point of weaponization: The first nuclear explosion on earth took place 16 July 1945. Less than three weeks later, with no test, the United States dropped a nuclear weapon on Hiroshima.
If U.S. intelligence was so wrong about Iraq, why does Left believe it about Iran?
By Sheila Orysiek
 SAN DIEGO—
So now we have a national intelligence estimate which says that Iran is kosher when it comes to the intent of making a nuclear bomb. They are working to have the ingredients, but won’t actually put the ingredients into the pot. The key-word in an NIE is “estimate.” Intelligence is not scientific - it’s not an art - it’s an estimate. This latest estimate is trying to tell us what happened in Iran in 2003 - four years late which surely undermines its accuracy.
After Sept. 11, 2001, the American president going on the best intelligence estimates at the time including those of other nations: Britain, France, Israel, Russia, etc., invaded Iraq because he couldn’t take the chance that Iraq harbored weapons of mass destruction. The concept that Iraq had WMD was not pulled out of the blue; Iraq had after all both owned and used these weapons against its own Kurdish population and Iran. It wasn’t a pie
Sheila Orysiek
in the sky concept that Iraq had and would use WMD.
Upon invading Iraq the weapons were not found - which doesn’t mean they hadn’t been there - but they weren’t found. Let’s assume all the intelligence from around the world was wrong - that there were no weapons - that all of Sadam’s stonewalling of the inspectors was just chutzpah. The left leaning opinion mill immediately swung into action relentlessly blaming President George W. Bush not for listening to the faulty intelligence which was given him, but for purposely, knowingly, cavalierly lying. “Bush lied, people died.” He was called a liar to his face, accused of being Hitler, a genocidal maniac, and it continues to this day with Bush being accused very recently of inventing the entire WMD thing and sending off our troops to “get their heads blown off for his personal amusement.” This was said by U.S. Rep. Pete Stark (Democrat, California) in October on the floor of the House of Representatives.
For the past six years President Bush has been castigated for believing the intelligence given him. The left of center (and a few on the right) have held him personally accountable for believing what in hindsight may have been faulty intelligence.
Now, with this new NIE we are being told to believe what the same intelligence community (the same ones who got it wrong before) is telling us - Iran is nuclear kosher. Why are we being asked to believe this same intelligence community? Because it fits the template of the left which has conveniently forgotten that it was former President Bill Clinton who first sounded the alarm and called for regime change in Iraq and that both Clintons supported the invasion of Iraq.
President Bush has also been accused of acting alone. This is a convenient memory lapse - he had the approval of the UN, the United States Congress and the participation of other countries. There are quite a number of representatives and senators on the other side of the aisle who saw the same intelligence he saw and came to the same conclusion and voted for the action against Iraq. But, now they have the convenience of changing their view, while still castigating him. They are allowed hindsight - he is not.
While he was erroneously accused of acting alone in Iraq - he was accused of not negotiating one on one with North Korea. Whichever method he chooses - alone or in concert - according to the left he is wrong.
On the one hand he is accused of being almost illiterate - stupid - (MBA from Harvard notwithstanding) and on the other hand intelligent enough to have fooled the entire United States Congress, the United Nations and major countries across the globe. Kind of like the Jewish population in old Europe: the lowest rungs of society - peddlers, beggars, impoverished, enclosed in ghettos, two thousand years of horror - but at the same time able to manipulate the entire world and its affairs to their benefit. (Obviously we didn’t do a very good job of it.)
After years of undermining the intent of this president to carry out his first responsibility of protecting and defending the country, he has been left with precious little capital to continue to protect and defend. He was creamed for believing faulty intelligence on Iraq but is now being creamed for not believing the intelligence on Iran; produced by the same intelligence community.
If this intelligence is wrong - and it’s been wrong many times before (Pakistan’s nuclear program, for instance) - and Iran one day detonates a nuclear device - it will be too late. That first missile will be aimed at Israel. We don’t need an NIE to know that - Iran has already told us.
This is what happens when a president is undermined by irrational politically driven hatred. It used to be that politics stopped at the water’s edge. It no longer does - and neither does the threat.
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Boling takes San Diego City Council campaign to Beth Jacob Congregation
By Michael M. Rosen
SAN DIEGO -- "Out of darkness comes light."
This line, immortalized by Matisyahu's "Jerusalem," nicely encapsulates the Hanukkah story. And, at the risk of sounding melodramatic, it also characterizes April Boling's quest to join San Diego's City Council, as she explained at Beth Jacob Congregation on December 5, the second night of the holiday.
Hanukkah commemorates the literal and allegorical triumph of light over darkness. The proverbial, stubborn oil lamp that lasted eight days illuminated the newly-restored Temple, thus re-establishing the interrupted service. And the victory of the Maccabees over the Greeks/Hellenized Syrians symbolized the enlightened vanquishing of forces that sought to plunge the region into a decadent darkness.
It's also no coincidence that we observe Hanukkah at, literally, the darkest time of the year, i.e. when sunlight hours are fewest. The blazing candles remind the Jewish people, and the outside world, that light really can overcome dark.
With this in mind, it's not much of an exaggeration to point out, as Boling does, that the San Diego City Council has a long way to go before it can emerge from the darkness that has enveloped it in recent years, but that such an emergence is indeed possible.
She spoke at a meeting co-sponsored by the synagogue and the Republican Jewish Coalition about her plans to address the pressing challenges that San Diego as a whole and her 7th Councilmanic District face.
A San Diego native and a longtime resident of the Navajo-Allied Gardens-San Carlos area, Boling has served in a variety of private and public financial and accounting capacities. She has owned her own CPA business for many years, after doing time at Price Waterhouse. She has served as the president of the San Diego County Taxpayers Association, as well as the head of the City's Pension Reform Committee.
And now, she wants to bring those talents to bear on the job of representing Council District 7, which encompasses the College Area, Del Cerro, San Carlos, Tierrasanta, Rolando, and several other neighboring areas.
Boling told the crowd that her principal goals were restoring financial accountability to the City's budget and long-term finances and repairing San Diego's creaky public infrastructure. She pointed to her lengthy experience in the public and private sector as the greatest asset she would bring to office. She differentiated herself on several grounds from her only opponent in the race, television journalist Marti Emerald. And, in her remarks and responses to questions, she addressed many of the specific issues that District 7 is confronting.
Chief among these is the impact that San Diego State University has had and will have upon the nearby communities. SDSU’s plans to add 10,000 students will significantly affect much of the District, and Boling is distinctly dissatisfied with the impact report that the CSU trustees have put forward.
Instead, she would like to see the trustees open a new campus in the South Bay, where none exists and where land is available.
She also discussed the recent, complicated set of proposals regarding "mini-dorms" in the vicinity of SDSU and stressed the need to relieve pressure on the neighborhood.
Boling explained her campaign plans and said she has already visited 6,000 out of 22,000 homes in the District. She declined to criticize her opponent, but suggested that her own decades of relevant experience will weigh heavily in voters' minds as they choose a representative.
She also addressed what she described as overzealousness and lack of professionalism in the current City Attorney's office; the impressive work that Mayor Jerry Sanders has done, given the circumstances he has faced; and her very early endorsement by the Tierra Times, the newspaper of the community where her opponent has resided for many years.
But ultimately, she said she is most passionate about restoring solvency to the City, re-establishing its credibility in the bond market, and reining in wasteful, fatuous spending by labor-controlled officials. In her estimation, because the City's general fund expands naturally by about 6 percent each year, there's no reason we cannot fix our infrastructural problems if only the Council exercises restraint by shunning unwarranted new programs.
Thus, Boling enlightened her audience about her intentions, the City's problems, and the potential solutions. Here's hoping she can continue to drag San Diego out from under the dark cloud hovering above it.
SAN DIEGO JEWISH WORLD THE WEEK IN REVIEW
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 6
Shoshana Bryen in Washington D.C.: NIE has 'moderate confidence' Iran has not reactivated its nuclear weapons program
Peter Garas in Canberra, Australia: Stingy? Friendly to strangers? You may be genetically predisposed to such behaviors
Irv Hackel in Brookyn, N.Y.: 'There are angels out there' at Ezer Mizion
Donald H. Harrison in San Diego: His remains sent from Poland to U.S. so he could be buried where Jews would visit
Donald H. Harrison: Chanukah at Hillel: A meshuganah auction
Ira Sharkansky in Jerusalem: Shock and disbelief in Israel over U.S. latest estimate on Iran's nuclear program
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 5
Garry Fabian in Melbourne, Australia:Two Jews and new friends in Parliament... Church group slammed for trip 'bias' ... Toben pulls apology, denial remains on web site ... Community welcomes Smith as new foreign minister ...
Donald H. Harrison in San Diego: Beth Am packed with Olshansky fans
Sheila Orysiek in San Diego: The differences and similarities between a dreidel and a pirouette
plus these feature photos...
Hannukiyot at Beth Am
Mideast delicacy on a license plate
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 4
Shoshana Bryen in Washington, D.C.: Stephen Hadley's appalling speech
Dov Burt Levy in Salem, Massachusetts: Nu, Mr. Billionaire, let's talk about Israel
J. Zel Lurie in Delray Beach, Florida: At 94 today, will I see peace in my lifetime?
Alan Rusonik in San Diego: A Challenge for Jewish School teachers: is your classroom a 'big tent' welcoming all?
MONDAY, DECEMBER 3
Cynthia Citron in Los Angeles: Zypora's love affair with the Yiddish Theatre
Rabbi Matthew Earne in San Diego: Slow down! Chanukah is not an IM
Donald H. Harrison in Poway, California: Some December advice for intermarried
Joe Naiman in San Diego: Care to compete in JCC Maccabi games?
Sheila Orysiek in San Diego: Connecting seemingly disparate dots
plus:
Photo essay: A Chanukah happening at LFJCC
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 2
Donald H. Harrison in San Diego, California: Celebrity watching at the White House
Rabbi Baruch Lederman in San Diego: A Chanukah miracle in post-war Poland.
Rabbi Leonard Rosenthal in San Diego: Vayeishev teaches thous shalt not have favorites among thy children
Lynne Thrope in San Diego: Chef Arturo Kassel to convert La Jolla Fresh to Whisnladle early next year
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SAN DIEGO—If anything leaves me cold, it is rhetoric that demonizes undocumented immigrants to our country. I understand why people want to control our borders and why they worry that the American economy might be unable to withstand a constant influx of poor people. What I don't understand is why people in our nation of immigrants can't put themselves in the shoes of the people who tear themselves from their families and who risk their very lives to find work in this country.
